9/08/2008

My Election Predictions

Canadians will head to the polls on October 14th of this year.
I predict more of the same, although there is a possibility of a Tory majority. Dion will make it as far as the debates; after that, he's finished.
I've seen some of the new Conservative ads with the tag-line "We're better off with Harper." Typically, elections tend to be more about the party than the leader. I do not expect this particular election to follow that pattern. This election will focus on the leaders. The Conservatives have hit the nail on the head with their new ads. Because Dion is so unelectable, they are smart to focus on Harper. This will force Canadians to look at the alternative: Dion. How does he compare?
A few notes of interest: According to Wiki, the Harper government not only managed to hold the second longest minority government in Canadian history so far, but they have done so with the smallest minority government in Canadian history, with the smallest percentage of government seats ever and the largest number of seats short of a majority. (If Wiki is wrong, please send me the correct info.) This is significant for a few reasons. While there has been a considerable amount of political play, on the whole Parliament has worked. The Conservatives managed to introduce a fair amount of anti-crime legislation, and they dealt with the accountability problems left over from the previous Liberal government. The average Canadian has more money in their pocket as a result of lower taxes and higher income tax returns.
Going into the election, I expect the key issues to be taxes and the environment. The Tories would be smart to focus on the Liberal's poor record on the environment and their proposed tax increase to fund a plan that no one really understands. If the issue of a Conservative "hidden agenda" comes up, they should not even respond to it. Canadian life has gone on as before and if anyone brings up that red herring, no one will buy it. The Conservatives ought to treat that line of thinking exactly as it is: ridiculous fear-mongering intended to quell actual political discussion.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Ruth i think your a bit wrong on the 2nd longest bit.PM Harper corrected LLoyd Robertson yesterday on CTV when he mentioned the same thing about being the second longest running minority.PM Harper said his government was the longest running minority in Canadian history and he gave the reason why.You would have to look for the interview with Lloyd Robertson from yesterday on CTV.Anyhow i cannot see PM Harper saying something like that if he wasn't sure.Good luck researching .

bert

Greg said...

You're forgetting that Harper himself said that Parliament is "dysfunctional" which means that he admitted that he couldn't run a minority government.

And he can't lower taxes any further. The Conservatives already drove us in to deficit in May after years of surpluses. While we expect Conservatives to create deficits, this should count against them.

As well, the Liberals are not raising taxes, they are shifting income taxes to pollution taxes. If they can get that message through, they won't have a problem.

Now let's talk about the morality of our social conservative party that let Listeria spread and ordered prisoners to be turned over to be tortured.

Anton said...
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