2/05/2007

Global Warming

When I woke up this morning, it was -18C. Plus windchill, it was closer to -30C. Right now, it's about -8C. This is expected to continue for most of the week.
But, we all know global warming is real, right? In the last 100 or so years, scientists have been keeping track of the temperature of the earth. There has been an overall temperature increase of roughly 0.2C every 10 years... or has there? That works out to an increase of 2C since temperature charting began. It's never mentioned whether there were any decreases in that time. Given that climate change theory states that in 100 years the earth will be anywhere from 1.8C to 4C warmer, it's safe to assume there must have been at least some decreases in temperature over the last 100 years. Otherwise, the figure would not be a range.
Something to consider. The same scientists who argue for climate change also argue that the earth is over 1billion years old; perhaps around 4.5billion. Has anyone stopped to consider the time-slice used to predict climate change?
It's only 100 years in 4.5billion.
In other words, predictions are being made on what amounts to 2.2x10-7% of all possible data.
According to the same model of the earth, man has existed for about 30,000 years or so. If you take only the data available from the time of man, then predictions are being made on what amounts to only 0.33% of all possible data.
Using a Biblical model of the world, man (and the earth) has existed for anywhere between 7,000 to 15,000 years. So, using either figure we get either 1.4% or 0.67% of all possible data. (I know most climate change scientists will reject a young earth theory, but I decided to include it anyway.)
Based on these time slices, I'd like to know how global warming ever received any attention in the scientific community. The margin of error here is absolutely enormous!! Whatever age of the earth you pick, data collected on weather patterns in 100 years is almost entirely meaningless and cannot be used to predict future patterns. There simply is not enough information. I would love to see the mathematical model these guys are using.
Oh! Wait! It's a "different" kind of science, isn't it?
Kinda like art??

4 comments:

Paul M. said...

You think its bad in the GTA, its -29C here right now (at midday, in the middle of the city of Thunder Bay). It dipped to about -35C last night!

You know you have every right to be skeptical of global warming if your car only starts up if you plug it overnight to keep it from freezing.

Ruth said...

Ha ha!
Pretty much.

Anonymous said...

I think the "Experts" have failed to allow for the lower quality of measuring the weather 100 years ago, even NASA found out that sending a craft to Pluto was tougher because the Computer software wasn't designed to calculate numbers so the accuracy
went well beyond the usual digits past the decimal place .
So before people are sold a pig on a poke, we should include the Solar activities because the Astronomical Science websites have posted charts to prove the Sun has increased the Flares and surface temperatures , but it's far too often that one group of Experts have no interest in hearing from other experts in a different field of Science.
I remeber the media ignoring a Scientist about 3 years ago that debunked this whole theory about Oil coming from dead dinosaurs , Oil rigs drill into the Ocean floor while Canada has the Tarsands at the surface of the Earth, and land based Oil drilling has gone down over 2 miles .
So ask yourself how dinosaurs got under the Ocean beds, and died in mass out in Alberta at ground level , because the fossil fuel theory worked fine until the diamond-drill was created by Howard Hughs in the early 30's
and the Scientists didn't have all the facts about what's deep down in the Earth.
Climate change can be very real but the theory of why is occurs should be held up for all to see exactly who and what is behind this claim , we have more people living in dangerous areas and better TV coverage to report weather disasters and this may convince us that the Earth is more active with earth quakes and floods.
If a CO2 level falls down in the forest and nobody is there to feel it, does the temperature still change?

Anton said...

Exactly.

Not to mention that scientists have no "pre-man" data to compare to. How can they say 100% that the earth's temperature wasn't always on a upward trend and we're only noticing it now because we are recording temperatures?

They have no evidence that the earth's temperature was stable/declining etc before man came along. So how can they blame us for the current climate change?

Other valid theories include:
1. Global climate has always been on the rise since BigBang/Creation/initial combobulation.
2. Global climate has always cycled. Meaning it goes up/down every few hundred years(similar to a sin wave) and we just happen to be on the upward curve

We still have the responsibility to not over-pollute and take care of the earth, but people, the sky is not falling.

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